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8:20 a.m. ET: A roundup of impacts so far: In Kentucky, the Associated Press reports the Red Cross is providing aid to a group of perhaps "thousands" of motorists stranded in a massive 35 mile long traffic jam on I-75 for as much as 10 hours overnight. The National Guard and Kentucky State Police are working to clear the jam, south of Lexington, one car at a time.
Also, tens of thousands of people are without power in New Jersey and a spokesperson for the Virginia State Police says officers have responded to 989 crashes and 793 disabled vehicles so far across that state. CNN reports that 11 states have declared a state of emergency.
Here's an update from @BeccaWBIR on the Interstate 75 standstill in Kentucky https://t.co/e92jFveg6Z pic.twitter.com/lmKZQEDWD4
— WBIR Channel 10 (@wbir) January 23, 2016
7:40 a.m. ET: As we reach high tide, it looks like the top-end coastal flooding projections for this storm have unfortunately panned out. In Lewes, Delaware, this storm has now eclipsed the flooding mark set during Hurricane Sandy (8.71 ft)—along with winds gusting above 70 mph. That doesn't mean you have to worry about a Sandy repeat in Northern New Jersey or New York City or Long Island, though, this storm's energy is focused further south where Sandy wasn't "as bad."
7:30 a.m. ET: This storm is really hitting its stride in the New York City area, too—and much earlier than expected: There's already six inches on the ground in Central Park as of 7 am, according to official measurements. It'll snow like this for the next 24 hours there.
7:23 a.m. EST: Water level at Lewes, Delaware, is at 9.07 feet. Second highest level on record. Image: NOAA #Jonas pic.twitter.com/77l4eKkzrt
— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) January 23, 2016
7:20 a.m. ET: The snow is really starting to pile up in the DC area. There's about 12-18 inches on the ground right now, almost half of that just within the last 4 or 5 hours. At National Airport, DC's official snow measuring site, there's 14 inches—good enough for the city's 12th biggest snowstorm in history, and this storm is probably only half over.
7:00 a.m. ET: Thundersnow! Slate's science editor Laura Helmuth has spotted that most joyous of all meteorological phenomena at her home in the DC area, and she wasn't the only one. She says: "We had some tremendous thundersnow this morning at about 6 a.m. in Rockville. Bright flash, extremely long-lasting thunder peal." Awww, yeah. There's some real science at work here too: Thundersnow is an indicator of extremely heavy snowfall rates.
@uscapitol crew working hard @3am to clean up drifts #blizzard2016 #Snowzilla @wusa9 @washingtonian @capitalweather pic.twitter.com/OBEHF7O96u
— Ashley Sinha (@atsinha) January 23, 2016
Officially 14" at National Airport, already ranks as 12th biggest storm in D.C., closing quickly on Top 10
— Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) January 23, 2016
11:30 p.m. ET: Overnight weather models are in, and once again, they're showing the storm pushing further north than previously expected. This trend, as well as the storm's stronger-than-expected showing so far—parts of the DC area already have 10 inches!—have prompted the NWS forecasters in New York City to go all-in.
Thundersnow!!!! @capitalweather #Snowzilla pic.twitter.com/3Ll7mYMSF7
— Doug (@hatemyway) January 23, 2016
Lightning showing up W of #Baltimore and N of DC - thundersnow time @JimCantore #blizzard2016 #Snowzilla #Jonas pic.twitter.com/REXPR4AFu2
— Eric Blake (@EricBlake12) January 23, 2016
Thundersnow with lightning. Hurricane force winds with flood warnings in Ocean City. When the last time y'all read your bible. Get right.
— Petty Princess (@MsCandiceOlivia) January 23, 2016
Here's what I'm thinking for the rest of the storm: For DC, an additional 15-20 inches—which would challenge the city's all-time snowfall record. This is a crippling amount of snow, and it will probably take days for the city to get moving again. Baltimore and Philadelphia should also wind up with a 20-25 inch storm total. New York City, which was expecting just 5-10 inches this morning, should now prepare for 18-24, ranking among the city's five worst snowstorms since the Civil War. Tomorrow from 8 a.m. to midnight will be the storm's peak, with heaviest snowfall rates, strongest winds (with gusts up to 50 mph), and most blizzard-y conditions. Don't be afraid to ask your neighbors for help if you're caught off-guard by the sudden boost in the forecast. In my six years in New York City, big snowstorms were an amazing, magical time. Enjoy it, and stay safe.
9:00 p.m. ET: This blizzard, whatever you want to call it—#Blizzard2016, #Snowzilla, or #DavidSnowie—is still about a day or so away from peak strength. It's been wow'ing meteorologists for days via computer model projections, and now it's wow'ing them with spectacular satellite images like the one below.
8:10 p.m. ET: This week, Slate collected some fabulous reader questions about the impending mega-blizzard. While we have a few minutes, I wanted to share my favorite that was left on the editor's chopping block: Just how big of a snowball fight could we have with the snow this thing is going to dump on the east coasters? Is there enough for everyone in the country to have say, 10 snowballs, which would probably be the minimum acceptable level for a true fight?
The snowstorm is a beautiful monster, winding up as it moves across the Southeast US #Snowzilla #blizzard2016 #Jonas pic.twitter.com/V8n3QmbZA6
— Eric Blake (@EricBlake12) January 23, 2016
Here's my answer: Let’s see, there are 320 million people in the USA, and the snow will fall over about 100,000 square miles at an average depth of, let’s say, 10 inches. There are about 4 billion square inches in a square mile, which means the total amount of snow will be about 4 quadrillion cubic inches of snow. That means each American gets about 12,000,000 cubic inches of snow, enough for about 7,000 snowballs for every man, woman, and child in the country. This doesn’t factor in the inevitable melt during the transportation and distribution process, so you’re on your own to figure out how that part’s going to work. But basically, yes.
7:30 p.m. ET: Snow has been falling for about eight hours in DC now, and streets are beginning to resemble winter wonderlands. The National Weather Service says snow should fall at up to one inch per hour during the evening hours before picking up overnight.
7:30 p.m. ET: The Associated Press is reporting that at least eight people have died in weather-related incidents so far in the blizzard in Kentucky, North Carolina, and Tennessee.
Dispatch from 9th Street #madmaxflurryroad #shawdc #kingofnothing #snowzilla @caro_130 @jacob_brogan
A video posted by Clean and rad and powerful (@ciaocatherine) on Jan 22, 2016 at 4:04pm PST
7:10 p.m. ET: While folks in Washington, D.C. and points northward anticipate the Big One, meteorological fireworks are already flying down in Charlotte, N.C. where a major ice storm is underway. Power outages are already piling up across the Carolinas, and the video below is a great example of why.
6:40 p.m. ET: While the storm gathers steam and heavier snow begins to spread northward, some have found solace in the live video feed of snow piling up on the National Mall from Paul Ryan's office in the U.S. Capitol. The music—and the comments section—are definitely worth the trip. Update, 7:00 p.m.: GQ Magazine calls Ryan's choice of music a "gorgeous piece of tropical sex jam perfection."
The last gasp of power in Oakwood.
A video posted by INDY Week (@indyweek) on Jan 22, 2016 at 3:12pm PST
5:20 p.m. ET: If, like me, you're weirdly obsessed—already!!—with checking how much snow is piling up in your neighborhood and are too lazy/cold to go outside and check the sidewalk yourself, the National Weather Service will be issuing reports about once every two hours throughout the duration of the storm compiling reports from people that are brave enough to take their own measurements. Here's the links for DC/Baltimore, Philly, and NYC. Also, if that's not enough of a guilt trip, here's the proper way of measuring snow if you'd like to do a science and help out forecasters during this historic snowstorm.
4:30 p.m. ET: Light snow has been falling for a few hours now in Washington, D.C., where the heaviest totals of this storm are expected—but meteorologists a bit further north are beginning to get a little nervous. Today's last-minute weather models threw fresh uncertainty on just how far north the sharp cut-off of multi-foot snow totals might reach, and National Weather Service forecasters in Philadelphia and New York City have significantly boosted their snow projections in response. There's now likely to be 20 inches of snow in Philly, up from a range of 12-18 just this morning.
Latest NWS snow map for NYC. (best guess left, worst case right) Up about 4” from this am. https://t.co/UC9OScO7he pic.twitter.com/fyGz5sgpOO
— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) January 22, 2016
4:05 p.m. ET: Welcome to Slate's blizzard liveblog! I'm your friendly meteorological guide to this storm, Eric Holthaus. (I'll be posting even more frequent updates on Twitter.) If you're looking for a broad overview of the storm's forecast, the link above should do it. If you're huddled with loved ones around the warmth of your smartphone, well, I wish you luck.
Read more in Slate about the East Coast blizzard.
